US government immersed itself into the conflict between Russia and Ukraine when it decided to supply weapons to the Kiev regime and to initiate an economic war against the Russian Federation. However, to be sincere, things have not gone Washington’s way when one looks through the mound of propaganda which is being spewed aimlessly by the aid of mainstream media. The US rallied its allies to help Ukraine in its efforts to fend off Russia’s attack and maintain its territorial integrity. Weapons were supplied by almost fifty states to Ukraine, however,not much has been achieved as Russia still holds about Fifteen percent of Ukrainian territory. Voting in the United Nations General assembly has been the point of much talk. Many countries in Africa,Asia, Caribbean and Latin America have chosen to stay neutral. The big emerging economies like China,India and South Africa have also taken a neutral stance much to the consternation of the western world.
It is true to say that both Russia and the US miscalculated their moves in this conflict. The Kremlin didn’t expect the US to rally around its allies and help Ukraine with weapons, logistics and intelligence. To the Russians this was supposed to take a few days and be over the soonest. The US involvement in this conflict through help to Ukraine might have come as a shock to Russia who were not expecting anything like that. It was supposed to be like the Crimea case in 2014 when Russia annexed the territory without a fight. The military aid to Kiev balanced the odds and erased the David- Goliath kind of scenario seen before. This forced Russia to go back to the drawing board and adapt to the concomitant circumstances. The economic sanctions had an instant impact before the Kremlin drew up measures to stabilize its economy and assure the Russian masses that the ship was stable. The Russian Ruble spiked but later stabilized and surpassed pre-war levels. The western businesses that left Russia due to the war and the ensuing sanctions were replaced with Chinese and Russian enterprises. This maintained employment to Russians. Some western businesses talked of leaving the Russian market but never left while others just changed their names; a loophole in the drafting of sanctions.
President Biden and the leaders of other western countries and their allies like Japan and South Korea expected the sanctions to initiate a massive outflow of capital and cause massive unemployment. This would have forced the Russian populace to rebel and bring down Putin’s regime or to force Russia to change its stance in Ukraine. However,this didn’t happen since Russia reacted in an unexpected way and stabilized the economy first. First, the tanking Ruble was brought to control through asset withdrawal restrictions from the Russian central bank. This means that some assets of western businesses were stuck in Russia to compensate for the Russian assets stuck in the West. Massive and almost immediate outflow of capital is detrimental to any economy. Russia prevented this early on. Russian businesses were quick to replace the leaving businesses so as to maintain employment and prevent mass unemployment. However,some westerners just changed the names of their businesses and continued to operate as usual. Chinese businesses were also helpful in this case by replacing some of the leaving westerners. It seems like this point was summarily overlooked by Washington and its allies. Russia then restricted gas and oil flow to the European union -the lifeblood of the economy of the European union. This economic war was much more subtle than the actual Ukrainian conflict, however, have no doubt,it was as intense as the physical battle. In this battle, the EU seemed to have come out worse with many economies in the EU being predicted to be gearing towards recession. Germany is already in a recession while Britain’s economy has hugely contracted.
Russian economy and Russian war machine have been much more resilient than expected. This despite Russian foreign assets being frozen and Russia-EU trade being drastically reduced. Russia replaced the lost trade with the EU with other partners like China and India who have since remained neutral. This was an unexpected turn of events. The resilience of Russia has emboldened other countries which are enemies of US like Iran, Venezuela China, North Korea,Nicaragua and even Mexico. These countries now know that the US can be beaten and are upping the ante. North Korea has been testing missiles closer to South Korea and Japan frequently than before. The skirmishes between People’s Liberation army of China and the US army in the South China sea has recently increased and the Chinese seems to be sending the message of strength to US. The issues of china’s reunification with Taiwan has increased the gap between these countries. Iran’s leaders are now globe-trotting in South America and Africa looking for allies. Enemies of US are also becoming stronger. Belarus now have Russian tactical nuclear weapons in its borders overlooking Europe.
BRICS has also been another unexpected turn of events. This grouping of Emerging markets including Russia,India, Brazil,China and South Africa has attracted many new would-be members. More than ten countries have applied to join this organization. These include Nigeria,Mexico,Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Pakistan, Ethiopia and Bangladesh among others. This means many countries are drifting away from the West and the numerous organizations where the West dominates and its word is the gospel. Even though it is too early to predict anything since there are a lot of intricacies involved,the west should be alarmed. Many countries want nothing to do with their domineering attitude and condescending character. The rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia is also not a good news to US and it’s Allies in the region. Syria has been readmitted into the Arab League against innumerable warnings of the US government. These two events can only mean one thing; that the authority of the US been and is continuously being eroded on the world stage.
The war between Russia and Ukraine has been going on for more than a year and widespread fatigue is already cropping in. It’s apparent that every side expected a short war and a quick victory . However, that was not the case. The senseless war is leisurely dragging itself and might continue to drag for a long time with no clear victory. The contentious issue is the funding for the war. The United States has already given Ukraine more than $75 billion in military, humanitarian and financial support. The US must continue supporting Ukraine for fear of Russia winning. If Russia wins then the power of US dominance will be challenged and vice versa. It seems that the US bit more than she can chew.
Geopolitical forces are shifting and it will be seen who comes out victorious in this momentous shift. It’s not an unexpected turn of events since , everyone knew that at one point the hegemony of the US was to be challenged. Change too will not be a new thing in this modern epoch. After world war two the balance of power shifted to the united States from Britain. Will this also be characterized by a war? Only time will tell.
Anonymous 