America’s story might be that of killing three birds with one stone if analysed keenly. The prevailing world view is that the American hegemony on the world stage is speedily waning. Some analysts predict that the end of Russian invasion of Ukraine might coincidentally bring the US empire to its knees because of the heavy financial support they frequently provide to Ukraine if Ukraine doesn’t win. American financial, military and humanitarian aid to the Eastern European country has increased abundantly to the tune of $50 billion in the last eight months. This has been seen to tremendously increase inflation and have a pernicious effect on the general cost of living in the country. The unpleasant prediction comes on the backdrop of numerous falls of various empires being instigated by high cost living, inflation and similar deleterious conditions which unfortunately plague America today. Pessimistic analysts continuously predict that this might be another messy falling of a great world power. Empires like the Soviet Union and the French under Louis fell mostly due to high cost of prices and high inflation compounded by mismanagement of the economy. However,this might not be case with the United States due to a number of factors; democracy, extreme levels of nationalism and craftiness of American leaders. Emphasis should also be placed on the fact that we live in a different time compared to the old-fashioned world during the french revolution and the fall of other empires.
America’s leaders and foreign policy makers were markedly aware of the threats that faced their place in the world dominance. They singled out the rise of China as the main threat followed, Putin’s Russia and a united Europe. Other parts of Asia, Africa and Latin America are still at a distant past in terms of economic and military strength and posed no significant threat to Uncle Sam’s land, for now. To solve two of these threat involved a risky fete of poking a nuclear powered bear. Russia’s nuclear arsenal exceeds the US, albeit narrowly. As of 2022, Russia possesses the largest stockpile of nuclear warheads in the world amounting to a total of 5,977; the second-largest stockpile is the United States’ 5,428 warheads. The tactics used by the USA comes directly from the CIA playbook, orchestrating a coup to oust the pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych in 2014 and replacing him with a US puppet. To make matter worse,the US increased its footprint in Ukraine, Russian neighbour something which is unacceptable to any Russian leader. Why is Ukraine a red line for Russia? Ukraine lies in the North European plain which encompasses large parts of Poland, Germany, France, Belgium, Netherlands and nearly all of Ukraine among other countries. Attacks towards Russia from this direction are virtually impossible to defend against because there’s no place to fallback to. It is just a flatland which stretches endlessly for miles. Any power including the US attacking Russia from this direction will certainly achieve great success. Everything done by the US from 2014 coup to the alleged biolabs was to provoke Russia to a war so that it might curtail its development and maybe defeat it completely. It is always a long game and there’s always certain more than meets the eye.
Next step was the involvement of all the major powers in the war and gaining support of all nations against aggression. This might not have been achieved fully due to the fact that the US already have a number of enemies acquired from the past. China, India,Iran, Venezuela and a number of of Asian, African and Latin American countries stayed away from condemning Russia or directly supported Russia. However, incorporating the European union in supporting Ukraine means that the United States succeeded in coercing one threat against the other. After the war,both European nations and Russia might be wrecked economically and damaged significantly. The same history might be repeating itself just like after the second world war. The economy of Europe has been successfully ruined by the US after coercing them to wean off Russian gas and oil and to consequently buy from the US, although the US sells four times higher than the Russians. Wrecking European economy is already counted as a success,the war might weaken Russia and leave US without a worthy adversary except China. Restrictions against Chinese import of semiconductor equipment and components from USA might do the trick since China has not fully mastered the technology. China seems to be giving the US sleepless nights. It’s a game of thrones.
Cracks are gradually beginning to appear between the US and its allies. The Germans and French have realized that they may be real losers in this war. While the top leadership of the European union is trying to restrict interactions with China,the German chancellor Olaf Scholz has officially confirmed that he will be leading an entourage of a trade delegation to Beijing in December. This might have tremendous repercussions in the already frosty relationships in EU. Another crack slowly appearing is the rift between France and Germany when it comes to Russian gas price caps. They seem not to agree on the way forward after several meetings. Failure to agree on time may spell doom for EU countries during the coming winter. Countries may have to be forced to go it independently. Lastly, the French president Emmanuel Macron has publicly accused the US of charging the EU exorbitant prices for its liquefied natural gas. This has consequently raised the prices of gas high in their countries causing unrest among citizens. These cracks might be a problem for the US in the long run and might deter it from achieving its overambitious goals.
There is a high likelihood that the US might miss out on its goals,albeit achieve it partially. Russia might win in the end and annex huge swathes of lands in Ukraine. The coming midterm elections in November may also prove difficult for the democrats because of the high cost of living and inflation which is mostly blamed on their policies. If the democrats fail then Ukraine will be a lost cause. But then the US government should not beat themselves so hard. They should rejoice in the idea that the goals are already partially achieved. The EU is wrecked, Russia is slowed through the war and China might also find it hard without a reliable semiconductor industry. They should however take important lessons from history. No empire that exists can exist forever.
Anonymous 